This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe . When looking at data throughout the market, it’s fairly easy to find some bright spots right now. For example, BTC volatility offers a “sharp contrast” to that of equities, according to K33. “Following its massive sell-off, the S&P 500 recorded its largest one-week volatility since April 2020, whereas BTC’s 7-day volatility of 3.1% sits moderately above its 1-year average 7-day volatility level of 2.5%,” analysts wrote. “This orderly and relatively regular 7-day volatility of BTC amidst the broad market chaos is an unusual sight to behold, as steep movements in equities tend to be mirrored by even sharper BTC moves.” Source: K33 This supports another piece of data you all know I’m fond of: CME trader sentiment. As of last week, traders were holding on to their defensive positions, but seemed relatively unfazed by what was happening in equity markets. “CME yields are starting to show a mild uptrend over recent weeks, indicative of slightly improved market sentiment. However, current premiums remain soft at 6.3%, reflecting cautious positioning, while open interest remains flat at 11-month lows. VolatilityShares outflows largely offset inflows from active market participants, as the futures-based ETF now holds 43,930 BTC – its lowest level since July 2024,” the analysts wrote. The real test will be looking at this same data in a week to ensure it’s holding up, given that volatility has taken us on some wild rides so far this week. My read right now is that cautious positioning without panic is a good sign. Though, after this week (and, yes, it’s only Wednesday), I’m not sure that’ll still be the case. Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters: Blockworks Daily : The newsletter that helps thousands of investors understand crypto and the markets, by Byron Gilliam. Empire : Start your morning with the top news and analysis to inform your day in crypto. Forward Guidance : Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance. 0xResearch : Alpha directly in your inbox. Market highlights, data, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance and more. Lightspeed : Built for Solana investors, developers and community members. The latest from one of crypto’s hottest networks. The Drop : For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more. Supply Shock : Tracking Bitcoin’s rise from internet plaything worth less than a penny to global phenomenon disrupting money as we know it.
